I made a spreadsheet to conservatively estimate the cumulative years of continuous driving (both fully manual and partially autonomous) that Tesla’s fleet of HW3 cars does. The formula for each month is (1 hour * 30 days * the number of cars) / 8760 hours. Then you add up the result for each subsequent month.
I start counting in April 2020 — by which time, hopefully the new neural networks designed for HW3 will be at least running passively in shadow mode on the fleet.
I didn’t account for any retrofitted HW2 cars in this spreadsheet. I assumed production of 105,000 cars per quarter (8750/week) until July 2021, when I added 4000/week Model Ys.
In this spreadsheet, the fleet gets to 10,000 years of driving in October 2020 and 100,000 years of driving in October 2022.